Are you saying that muggleborns ARE less likely to be powerful in canon (which relies on absence of evidence), or are you saying that by my hypothesis, they SHOULD BE less likely to be powerful (which you have not adequately explained)?
Your hypothesis makes it so that muggle borns would be less likely to be powerful. Not that they can’t be, just less likely. We know there are very fewer wizards then muggles, & that wizards tend to intermarry which is a form of inbreeding. we don’t need JKR to say muggleborns are more or less powerful. We just need to know if its genetic (seems to be), if its a simple recessive, polygenetic etc., & the number of wizards to muggles. Figuring out the frequencies & chances of being a powerful wizard (if that is determined polygenetically) is like figuring out the frequency/risks of genetic disease in a population.
If its just one gene- powerfulness could be determined by other factors- eg the same ones that would work in muggles, plus enviroment. EG, a gene gives on talent at working with plants, makes a muggle a good gardener, or a wizard a good herbologist. In such a case, I’d say powerfulness of the wizard is no more/less likely then talent/IQ in a muggle.
We don’t have information in canon on how many muggle born wizards occur in the muggle population- but that muggles tend to be fearful & not-understanding of wizards says to me that most don’t know one (don’t have on in the family). Also the size of the Wizarding world seems small compared to that of muggles- Hogwarts teaches all of the pure-blood, mudblood & muggle-born wizards in what all of the U.K.? & how many schools are needed to teach all of the muggle children in the UK. A lot! So we don’t have very many wizards popping out of muggles. Which means the allele(s) that make one magical must be rare in muggle population.
If just one gene makes one a moderately powerful wizard, then although few wizards are produced, they’d at least be of average magical ability. However, if you add in even a few more magical genes that work together, then your odds of getting a wizard from muggles is not only rare, but they are more likely to have only 1 or 2 of the several genes needed- making them weak wizards. The likelihood of getting ALL the genes to make them very powerful is very slim. This is what I was getting at with the cats.
At least when wizards are inbreeding, they know that they all have the wizard gene- what they may worry about is the frequency of the squib allele (if that is a recessive genetic “disease”), as well as what the magical abilities are in the lineages- since they can * See * the magical abilities in the family members, they can thus select for the traits. Breeding FOR traits changes the allelic frequencies, making the more “popular” more prevalent (and any associated genes, which may be negative as well, thus resulting in inbred populations having rare diseases suddenly become common).
Muggles would not be able to see divination or transfiguration ability when its hidden in their family trees due to lack of (or rare pairing up of) the wizard gene. They essentially are randomly breeding, keeping the allelic frequency unchanged. So That frequency must be pretty low based on the size of the muggle & wizard populations I interpret from reading (Is there anywhere were JKR has given actual numbers for the populations? If so, then if we just looked at magical ability, assuming that it’s a single gene trait (set aside powerfulness from other multiple gene traits) we could mathematically figure out the frequency of the allele. Of course, I’m assuming, given that this is random breeding based on we have heard about muggles marrying wizards. However if this is rarely done, if looked down on in both cultures, then muggles aren’t really randomly breeding, they are slowly breeding the wizard genes out of their population (that is, if when there is a muggle born, they are most likely to marry another wizard, rather then marry back into muggle society, this act slowly reduces the frequency of the wizard alleles in the muggle population & thus in time it becomes more & more rare to get muggle-borns)
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Date: 2003-09-15 05:05 am (UTC)Your hypothesis makes it so that muggle borns would be less likely to be powerful.
Not that they can’t be, just less likely. We know there are very fewer wizards then muggles, & that wizards tend to intermarry which is a form of inbreeding. we don’t need JKR to say muggleborns are more or less powerful. We just need to know if its genetic (seems to be), if its a simple recessive, polygenetic etc., & the number of wizards to muggles. Figuring out the frequencies & chances of being a powerful wizard (if that is determined polygenetically) is like figuring out the frequency/risks of genetic disease in a population.
If its just one gene- powerfulness could be determined by other factors- eg the same ones that would work in muggles, plus enviroment. EG, a gene gives on talent at working with plants, makes a muggle a good gardener, or a wizard a good herbologist. In such a case, I’d say powerfulness of the wizard is no more/less likely then talent/IQ in a muggle.
We don’t have information in canon on how many muggle born wizards occur in the muggle population- but that muggles tend to be fearful & not-understanding of wizards says to me that most don’t know one (don’t have on in the family). Also the size of the Wizarding world seems small compared to that of muggles- Hogwarts teaches all of the pure-blood, mudblood & muggle-born wizards in what all of the U.K.? & how many schools are needed to teach all of the muggle children in the UK. A lot! So we don’t have very many wizards popping out of muggles. Which means the allele(s) that make one magical must be rare in muggle population.
If just one gene makes one a moderately powerful wizard, then although few wizards are produced, they’d at least be of average magical ability. However, if you add in even a few more magical genes that work together, then your odds of getting a wizard from muggles is not only rare, but they are more likely to have only 1 or 2 of the several genes needed- making them weak wizards. The likelihood of getting ALL the genes to make them very powerful is very slim. This is what I was getting at with the cats.
At least when wizards are inbreeding, they know that they all have the wizard gene- what they may worry about is the frequency of the squib allele (if that is a recessive genetic “disease”), as well as what the magical abilities are in the lineages- since they can * See * the magical abilities in the family members, they can thus select for the traits. Breeding FOR traits changes the allelic frequencies, making the more “popular” more prevalent (and any associated genes, which may be negative as well, thus resulting in inbred populations having rare diseases suddenly become common).
Muggles would not be able to see divination or transfiguration ability when its hidden in their family trees due to lack of (or rare pairing up of) the wizard gene. They essentially are randomly breeding, keeping the allelic frequency unchanged. So That frequency must be pretty low based on the size of the muggle & wizard populations I interpret from reading (Is there anywhere were JKR has given actual numbers for the populations? If so, then if we just looked at magical ability, assuming that it’s a single gene trait (set aside powerfulness from other multiple gene traits) we could mathematically figure out the frequency of the allele. Of course, I’m assuming, given that this is random breeding based on we have heard about muggles marrying wizards. However if this is rarely done, if looked down on in both cultures, then muggles aren’t really randomly breeding, they are slowly breeding the wizard genes out of their population (that is, if when there is a muggle born, they are most likely to marry another wizard, rather then marry back into muggle society, this act slowly reduces the frequency of the wizard alleles in the muggle population & thus in time it becomes more & more rare to get muggle-borns)