Someone wrote in [personal profile] pauraque_bk 2004-07-19 08:31 pm (UTC)

Yet another theory...

Hi, found this interesting discussion through daily_snitch. Have been reading through those other posts, and I think perhaps I can offer yet another view. :-)

I think Dumbledore knew that Pettigrew was a spy. Not perhaps through legilimency, but from one of his "number of useful spies" (PoA, uk pb p222), at the very least he suspected him.

DD has a long track record now of wanting to give people second chances and/or enough rope to hang themselves with... He clearly suspected fake!Moody, eg, but he let him discriminate himself before taking action against him. He disagrees with Fudge, but does not break with him until absolutely necessary. He knows Lockhart is a fraud, but allows him to to bumble through until he destroys himself. At Harry's trial he directs rather than states what *he* think is the truth. I think being somewhat evasive is part of his personality, he want other people to think for themselves (but will sneakily influence them).

I think DD would suspect Peter, and pay attention, but I don't think he would tell anybody else unless he had proof he was willing to use (and I don't think he would expose one of his own spies). Knowing Peter to be the spy (or at least *a* spy), he would make sure Peter knew what DD wanted Voldie to know.

But why then, didn't DD defend Sirius, if he knew him to be innocent? Well, my answer to that is, *innocent of what?* " A street full of eyewitnesses swore they saw Sirus murder Pettigrew." (p422). Nobody has reason to doubt the muggles, and even though DD might wonder about the Potters, there was proof (false, in hindsight) that Sirius killed thirteen people (in front of muggles, too), how does that make him innocent in anybody's eyes? As long as DD has no reason to doubt that Sirius killed those people he would probably think Sirius ought to be punished. And Sirius has a history of being rash with violent outcomes, DD must have remembered the Shrieking Shack history and how Sirius almost killed Snape for following them. What would he do if somebody *betrayed* him and the people he love? How about: kill them...

I think DD had a spy who was present when Peter came to tell Voldie, though, and I think that later, *Snape* tells Dumbledore that Peter and Sirius changed places, and DD thinks he finally understands WHY Sirius killed Peter and the muggles, but I don't think DD thought Peter capable of such a fantastic bluff or that he is alive. When Snape splutters and shouts about how Black is a murderer I think he genuinely believe that Black killed thirteen people after almost killing him, too. He does not claim that Pettigrew was innocent, the way Fudge, MaG and Hagrid do, he just shouts about Black.

This theory does not, however, explain what Snape thinks Black wants to acchieve in Hogwarts. He might think Black mad and dellusional, or even that Black has come back to irk him, but I realise these are weak points.


Oh, another thing. Sirius says in GoF that he was sent straight to Azkaban without trial. He was captured on the same day Dumbledore is organizing Harry's stay with the Dursleys. Unless Dumbledore had already been at the Ministry and made his statement about Sirius beeing Secret-Keeper it is unlikely he knew about this until after Sirius was sent away and the "proof" overwhelming.

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