Interesting that Percy would be the only survivor. I've already told you that I think he probably won't make it past the end of HBP; I didn't explain why. My reasoning went something like this.
We now know that Dumbledore is fallible and vulnerable. It's hard to imagine a more climactic ending for the series than the death of Dumbledore at the hands of Voldemort. Therefore, Dumbledore will probably die in #7.
That establishes a diagonal, like counters in Connect-4, of climactic deaths. Cedric – Sirius – X – Dumbledore. A steady, multi-book crescendo of rising tension. But who is "X"?
Somebody close to Harry. Closer than Sirius; Harry adored Sirius but never really got to know him. Somebody we, the readers, know quite well, too. Not Ron or Hermione, because that would probably be too dark for a children's series, and certainly too climactic to go in the second-last book. Not Lupin or MacGonagall, because Harry never got close to them either. (I'm not ruling out the possibility of other deaths, but they won't be the big shocking tragic deaths.)
That leaves Hagrid, Neville Longbottom, or a Weasley. (Not Bill or Charlie; again, we don't know them well enough.)
So out of Hagrid, Neville, Arthur, Molly, Percy, Fred, George and Ginny, who's most likely to go? Fred and George are the comic relief; we need them. Molly and Arthur are better suited in the rôles of mourners than mourned. Ginny hasn't really had a character arc — we hardly saw her in PoA and GoF.
That puts us down to three (assuming I'm correct so far): Hagrid, Neville, and Percy. Any of the three is a real possibility. My money's on Percy because of his falling-out with his parents. For one thing, it would turn Molly's Boggart-inspired fretting in OotP, not to mention her response to the aftermath of the World Cup in GoF, into a foreshadowing. For another, I'm having real trouble second-guessing how Percy and Umbridge will respond to the revelation that the Ministry they were so hell-bent on protecting from Dumbledore's wiles was in the wrong all along. Remember the letter Percy sent Ron? "I will be ready to accept their apology in the fullness of time" (not an exact quote, but it was words to that effect). Now he's going to have to apologize to them. I don't think that will come easy. I think it's going to be a major plot element in HBP. And I can't see it ending with tea and cakes all round, so to speak.
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Date: 2004-12-09 02:59 am (UTC)We now know that Dumbledore is fallible and vulnerable. It's hard to imagine a more climactic ending for the series than the death of Dumbledore at the hands of Voldemort. Therefore, Dumbledore will probably die in #7.
That establishes a diagonal, like counters in Connect-4, of climactic deaths. Cedric – Sirius – X – Dumbledore. A steady, multi-book crescendo of rising tension. But who is "X"?
Somebody close to Harry. Closer than Sirius; Harry adored Sirius but never really got to know him. Somebody we, the readers, know quite well, too. Not Ron or Hermione, because that would probably be too dark for a children's series, and certainly too climactic to go in the second-last book. Not Lupin or MacGonagall, because Harry never got close to them either. (I'm not ruling out the possibility of other deaths, but they won't be the big shocking tragic deaths.)
That leaves Hagrid, Neville Longbottom, or a Weasley. (Not Bill or Charlie; again, we don't know them well enough.)
So out of Hagrid, Neville, Arthur, Molly, Percy, Fred, George and Ginny, who's most likely to go? Fred and George are the comic relief; we need them. Molly and Arthur are better suited in the rôles of mourners than mourned. Ginny hasn't really had a character arc — we hardly saw her in PoA and GoF.
That puts us down to three (assuming I'm correct so far): Hagrid, Neville, and Percy. Any of the three is a real possibility. My money's on Percy because of his falling-out with his parents. For one thing, it would turn Molly's Boggart-inspired fretting in OotP, not to mention her response to the aftermath of the World Cup in GoF, into a foreshadowing. For another, I'm having real trouble second-guessing how Percy and Umbridge will respond to the revelation that the Ministry they were so hell-bent on protecting from Dumbledore's wiles was in the wrong all along. Remember the letter Percy sent Ron? "I will be ready to accept their apology in the fullness of time" (not an exact quote, but it was words to that effect). Now he's going to have to apologize to them. I don't think that will come easy. I think it's going to be a major plot element in HBP. And I can't see it ending with tea and cakes all round, so to speak.