pauraque_bk | odds/ends otp

Gee! Oh, eff! cont'd

Couple weeks back we had some discussion of whether Peter was at Godric's Hollow the night the Potters died, whether he took V's wand, what he did with it afterwards, etc. Recently, TLC reported that a fan asked JKR about this point:

I also asked when Harries [sic] parents were killed by Voldermort, Wormtail turned into a rat and pretended to be dead. How then did he give Voldermort his wand and robe back once he found him and helped give him back his body ?, she told me (after tapping her nose!) 'he hid them'.

The robes too, eh? Alas,

chresimos, our vision of Peter sorting through the racks at Madam Malkin's trying feverishly to estimate the Dark Lord's waist size may not be canonical after all...

With laughing song and merry dance

Last weekend,

keladryb and my brother and I went to see The Mikado. I always forget how much I love that play. I have a tendency to sing the praises of the less-appreciated G&S shows, because... well, that's just the thing I do. But The Mikado's popularity is deserved.

It's so morbid -- I always forget that, too -- but it gets away with it because the characters are so charming, moreso than in any of the other plays. It always strikes me, when Ko-ko stops Nanki-Poo from performing the happy despatch in the first act -- characters in satires generally have ulterior motives, but at the moment Ko-ko reacts, he has none. He just doesn't want this guy to kill himself.

I got into G&S because of my mom. She started taking me to the Lamplighters' shows when I was eleven, and the first one we saw was The Mikado. Since then, I've seen all of the extant G&S plays but one -- most of them multiple times, and most of them with my mother.

Now I'd like to call your attention to "Lots of Good Fish in the Sea" by Merripestin at Slash Cotillion. It's short, G-rated, Katisha/Pitty-Sing, and please believe me when I tell you that it is absolutely tasteful and exquisite. As a mother might say to a child about hundred-years-old light opera: Try it, you just may like it.

'They came back at nightfall during the harvest festival, and it was under the light of lanterns, the first time I saw her that season. Pitty-Sing, that smug little cat who had clawed me for her sister's sake, that sly beautiful defiant child. She had a lantern on a stick and a plum in her hand. Our eyes met, a distance of fifteen paces between us...'

Where Bush-Cheney needs to be

This is an excerpt from an email sent to me by the Kerry campaign. In addition to the usual "give us money yay!" stuff, they provided some information on the average standings of winning incumbents before and after their conventions. Likely to be of interest regardless of what candidate you're backing.

"There are some basic benchmarks by which an incumbent's success can be measured as the campaign heads into the fall:

-The average winning incumbent has had a job approval rating of 60%. Indeed, every incumbent who has won reelection has had his job approval in the mid-50's or higher at this point. In recent polling, Bush's average approval rating has been 48%. President Bush must emerge from his convention having dramatically altered public perception of his performance in office.

-In recent years, when incumbents have gone on to victory, 52% of voters, on average, said the country was on the right track. Now, just 37% think things are moving in the right direction. Thus, President Bush must convince the electorate that the nation is in much better shape than voters now believe to be the case.

-Every incumbent who has gone on to be reelected has had a double-digit lead at this point.

-Following their conventions, the average elected incumbent has held a 16-point lead, while winning incumbents have led by an average of 27 points. Bush will need a very substantial bounce to reach the mark set by his successful predecessors.

-Incumbents have enjoyed an average bounce in the vote margin of 8 points.

-On average, incumbents' share of the two-party vote has declined by 4 points between their convention and Election Day.

President Bush has the opportunity to achieve an average, or even greater, bounce from his convention. Typically, elected incumbents go into their conventions with a 9-point lead, while incumbents who have gone on to win enter their conventions with a 21-point lead. Most current polls show the race quite close. This gives the president substantial room to bounce. By contrast, Senator Kerry entered his convention in a far stronger position than the average challenger. The average challenger goes into his convention 16 points behind, while Senator Kerry entered his convention with a 1-2 point lead. This gave Senator Kerry much less room to bounce.

However, as the data above makes clear, average is not enough for President Bush. Incumbents who went on to win reelection had an average lead of 27 points after their convention. Indeed, the average elected incumbent -- winners and losers -- had a lead of 16 points after their conventions. An average bounce would still leave Bush well below the historical mark set by other incumbents, particularly those who went on to victory.

Perhaps most important, the average elected incumbent experienced a 4-point drop in his share of the two-party vote from the post-convention polling to Election Day. Thus, to beat the odds, President Bush will need to be garnering 55% of the two-party vote after his convention. Anything less than that and the president will remain in grave political danger."

Baby's first priv

To most of you, this will mean nothing, but: I've been given I1 in g/unk. *n00bie squee*

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